Владимир Крохин » Публикация

Аннотация Basic requirements to the FERHRI automated forecasting system (AFS) for tropical cyclones are laid down. Hurricane model configuration is described. Results of quasioperational verification of HWRF and AHW models are considered. It is obtained that both approaches: movable (HWRF) and immovable (AHW) (nested grids) gives approximately similar errors in forecasting of tropical cyclone location for the period of 72 hours. Estimates of the forecasts of the fields of some meteorological elements in vicinity of tropical cyclones on the basis of МЕТ software are presented. Analysis of regular errors of hydrodynamic models of WRF family made with involvement of results of V.M. Losev’s modified regional model forecasts with artificial vapor flow, ensures the possibility of further adjustment of convection blocks and boundary layer for working with tropical cyclone. It is obtained that errors in forecasting of location, speed and direction of tropical cyclone movement using HWRF model are less. It proves that HWRF model is more stable in comparison with AHW model. On the basis of tests performed in 2011, a principal capability of AHW and HWRF models to produce the position/time characteristics of a tropical cyclone at various stages of development at the level of official forecasts has been proved. The authors suppose it would be reasonable to use WRF family models for the forecast of tropical cyclone movement and evolution in the Russian Far East.